ABSTRACT
Background: Coronavirus is one of the major pathogens of the human respiratory system and a major threat to the human health. Objectives: This modeling study aimed to project the epidemics trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Qom, Iran Methods: This study projected the COVID-19 outbreak in Qom using a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model by the end of December 2020. The model was calibrated based on COVID-19 epidemic trend in Qom from 1 January to 11 July. The number of infected, hospitalized, and death cases were projected by 31 December. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was applied to obtain 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the estimates. Results: According to the results, the reduced contact rate and increased isolation rate were effective in reducing the size of the epidemic in all scenarios. By reducing the contact rate from eight to six, the number of new cases on the peak day, as well as the total number of cases admitted to the hospital by the end of the period (31 December), decreased. For example, in Scenario A, compared to Scenario E, with a decrease in contact rate from eight to six, the number of new cases on peak days decreased from 15,700 to 1,100. The largest decrease in the number of new cases on peak days was related to Scenario F with 270 cases. Also, the total number of cases decreased from 948,000 to 222,000 between the scenarios, and the largest decrease in this regard was related to Scenario F, with 188,000 cases. Conclusions: The parameters of contact rate and isolation rate can reduce the number of infected cases and prevent the outbreak, or at least delay the onset of the peak. This can help health policymakers and community leaders to upgrade their health care
ABSTRACT
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected more than 180 countries and has killed more than half a million people up to now. Risk factors for death are not yet fully identified. Objectives: The present study aimed at comparing the clinical manifestations and risk factors for death between two groups of patients with COVID-19 aged under and above 50 in Qom Province, Iran. Methods: The current retrospective cohort study was conducted on 178 patients with COVID-19 in Qom Province. Patients were fol-lowed up until recovery or death. The source population was divided into four groups, of which 45 patients were randomly enrolled in the study. The first group included patients aged less than 50 discharged after recovery;the second group included patients less than 50 years who died from COVID-19;the third group consisted of patients above 50 discharged after recovery, and the fourth group included patients above 50 who died from COVID-19. The data, including COVID-19 clinical symptoms and presumptive risk factors for death, were collected and compared between groups. Results: The most common symptoms in hospitalized patients were shortness of breath (82.6%), cough (73.6%), and fever (71.9%), respectively. In the age group above 50, the prevalence of fever in the recovered subjects was higher than that of the ones who died from the disease (81.8% Vs. 53.3%). Headache and loss of senses of smell and taste were also more common in both age groups in the recovered subjects. In the age group under 50, subjects who died had higher BMI values, but in the age group above 50, subjects who died had lower BMIs. Conclusions: The results of the present study showed that obesity could be a risk factor for death in the age group under 50. The results also indicated that in both age groups, extrapulmonary symptoms were more common in recovered patients.
ABSTRACT
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the complications in COVID-19 patients, which is reported with widely varied incidence rates in different studies and is known to have a major impact on prognosis and outcome of the disease. It is noticed that there are considerable differences in AKI rates between different countries. Rates in China are generally much lower than in Western Europe and the United States. One of the potential explanations is heterogeneity along racial and ethnic lines. This study aims to systematically investigate the scientific resources regarding AKI prevalence among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Iran, and run a meta-analysis on currently published data. Web of Science, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases were searched to identify the articles discussing the occurrence of AKI in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Iran. All observational and interventional studies with English full-text providing necessary data for analysis were included with no limitation in time of release or peer-review. Around, 4069 confirmed cases (age;10-94) from 22 studies were included in the pooled outcome measurement. The proportion of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Iran who developed AKI was 24% (95% CI: 17-31%). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic review and meta-analysis to measure the prevalence of AKI in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Iran. The geographical dissimilarities in the proportion of AKI among COVID-19 patients suggest a role for ethnical and racial differences in the tendency to develop renal involvement.
ABSTRACT
There are significant misconceptions and many obstacles in the way of illuminating the epidemiological and clinical aspects of COVID-19 as a new emerging epidemic. In addition, usefulness of some evidence published in the context of the recent epidemic for decision making in clinic as well as public health is questionable. However, misinterpreting or ignoring strong evidence in clinical practice and public health probably results in less effective and somehow more harmful decisions for individuals as well as subgroups in general populations of countries in the initial stages of this epidemic. Accordingly, our narrative review appraised epidemiological and clinical aspects of the disease including genetic diversity of coronavirus genus, mode of transmission, incubation period, infectivity, pathogenicity, virulence, immunogenicity, diagnosis, surveillance, clinical case management and also successful measures for preventing its spread in some communities.